Sunday 30 September 2018

How the Indian Cricket ODI team is shaping up for World Cup 2019

While we look at the probable 15 member Indian squad for the World Cup 2019 to be held in England from end of May to July, let us look back at the Team India performance this year and see what problems have been solved and what remains to be solved.

India started 2019 with a bang, by winning the 6 match ODI series in SA convincingly by 5-1. This is the first time India has won any kind of Series in SA, and this score line was emphatic. The victory was mainly achieved due to Captain Virat Kohli tremendous batting (he scored 3 centuries), and spin twins Yuzvendra Chahal and Kuldeep Yadav terrific leg spin bowling that bamboozled SA batting lineup which had already got bit lightened due to injuries to their star batsmen like AB villiers and Faf Duplessy.

This series showed once again that when their Top 3 scores, India will most of their matches, and now combine that with deadly spin combo in middle overs. However India middle order batting rarely got tested in this Series, and the problem did not get noticed much during this series.

After that next major ODI series was in England during July 2018. After T20 series win, there was a high expectation on Team India to win this series, and that expectation also rose after the resounding win in first match. The first match primarily won due to England team got bamboozled from leg spin of Kuldeep Yadav and then India top 3 chased the total in a canter resulting in easy win.
Next two matches India lost due to two reason. Their top 3 failed to score big runs and spin twins also failed to contain in the middle overs. Combined with this India fast bowling attack was depleted with the absences of Bumrah and Bhuvi missing in action. Middle order led by Dhoni was any already doing poorly failed to provide backup option resulting in 1-2 loss of the series. This series highlighted critical things for India ,
1) India will win easily their matches when at least 2 of their top 3 batsmen (Rohit, Dhawan, Kohli) score big. This is irrespective of chasing / setting up the target
2) For India top contain the opposition score, their Spin twins have to click big
3) Their fast bowling led by Bumrah and Bhuvi has to be there to contain in the death overs. We have seen that this attach does contain in the end slog overs even if they get hit in the initial overs. However we still good backup of fast bowlers as we have seen in England series that when these bowlers were not available, the backup did not do their job.

If the above 3 clicks, then India's middle order will not be tested, and will be able to hide its problems. This again got confirmed with Asia cup where Virat Kohli was rested , so only Top 2 was available.

In Asia Cup 2018, held in Dubai - after a lackluster start against Honk Kong, India won most of their matches convincingly, and in these following performances stood out,
1) Showed how important is for the Rohit, Dhawan to score big to help India chase / setup the total
When they did not score big (as in Final) or when they did not play against Afghanistan - Indian team struggled
2) Spin twins did again bowled well, when they were not taking wickets, they were at least containing the opposition batsmen, leading to wickets from the other end
3) Bhuvi, Bumrah combined well to contain in the initial overs and slog overs. When they were not there, again Indian bowling struggled

Performances which remained as concerns,
1) India middle order continues to be weak, and when the top 3 does not score, there is no one to rely while setting-up total and finishing well, and no one to steady the chase
2) Backup seamers - Except new boy Khaleel Ahmed, others were ordinary when they got chance

So how does the team stack-up now, that we have only about 20+ ODI to go before the WC,

Opening Batting
There is no Alternative (TINA) to Rohit and Dhawan
Seems like the backup opener at this stage is KL Rahul

Middle Order ( 2 to 6)
Presence of Number one ODI batsmen Virat Kholi, makes it a stronger but only when he clicks.
Now 4, 5, 6 - is still not completely decided
5 will most probably - MS Dhoni. But he is former shadow of what he was couple of years ago. You cannot bank on him to setup the total - basically finishing strongly in the slog overs, or neither you can expect him to be finisher during the chase, let us say there is a need to score 90 runs in last 10 overs. I do not remember last when India scored 90+ runs during the last 10 overs to win a match.

Number 6 seems to be leaning towards to Kedar Jadhav. Specifically due to his Golden arm and his ability tee off immediately after coming to bat. He does not take time to settle down, and immediately starts hitting and contributes with 20-30 runs most of the time.

Number 4 is up in the open, Contenders are Ambati Rayudu, Dinesh Karthick, Manish Pandey.
First two were given chance throughout the Asia Cup, did nothing much to convince that they can take this slot.  During the Asia Cup, they were highlighting Rayudu having 50+ average, well we need to look at where did he score of most of those runs. As I recall most of those were from couple of series in Zimbabwe,  Sri Lanka when they had come to India in 2014,  and may be against Windies.

So I am not convinced with Rayudu, and Karthick - both are also weak fielders. Karthick probably getting selected also as backup keeper. Well for that I would go with Rishabh Pant (more futuristic selection) than Karthick which will take us backwards. Also there is KL Rahul as another backup keeper.

I would go with Manish Pandey just with this fielding abilities itself as we had seen during Asia Cup when he was on field as substitute. Also he did performed well when he was in the middle order during South Africa T20 series. Strangely was then overlooked for England series - primarily because of IPL form (which should not be the case)

All-rounders
I would like place Bhuvi above Hardik Pandya in the Seam bowling all-rounder because, you can bank on him to bowl 10 over every match with 40-45 runs or 50/2 and score 20 runs every match.

Other Seam bowling all-rounder will be Hardik Pandya-  not because he is doing great, it is just because there is no strong alternative available. Hardik is highly inconsistent. You cannot bank on him to bowl consistently in every match and contain the opposition team with say 40-45 runs in middle over, neither you cannot bank on him to score 20-30 runs every match. If does that - India will have another match winner

Spin bowling all-rounder will be Ravindra Jadeja - He was back in the team after more than a year and his performance in the Asia cup confirmed it. I was surprised that for this slot he was getting overlooked against Axar Patel.

On fielding - Jadeja, will be probably classified as the best fielder in India ODI team
Batting - definitely Jadeja is much better batsmen than Axa
Bowling - both probably at same level in ODI level - but Jadeja goes through his overs so fast, that it will also help India captain save some fine from slow over rate :)

Spin Bowlers
Yuzvendra Chahal
Kuldeep Yadav

They are good bowlers, but they are also weak in batting and fielding and they really need to do well in their bowling to help India win their matches

Fast Bowlers
Jasprit Bumrah - selects himself and number one ODI
Bhuvi is already selected above as all-rounder, and now we need backup seamers
I would go with Umesh Yadav and Mohamed Shami - because of their experience and we have also seen backup options like Shardul Thakur, Sidhharth Kaul were average at International level - not withstanding their performance in IPL based on which they were selected.
Other alternate option will be Khaleel Ahmed

So overall the 15 member squad with about 20+ ODI still go before WC looks like below for me,

Rohit Sharma (Vice Captain)
Shikar Dhawan
Virat Kohli
Manish Pandey
MS Doni (Wicket Keeper)
Kedar Jadhav
Hardik Pandya
Bhuvneshwar Kumar
Jasprit Bumrah
Yuzvendra Chahal
Kuldeep Yadav
Umesh Yadav
Mohamed Shami
K.L Rahul
Ravindra Jadeja

Please let me know you comments